2019-2020 WC Seeding Predictions, as they stand Late July 2019.

Discussion in 'Know Your Enemy' started by Money, Jul 23, 2019.

  1. Money

    Money NBA All-Star

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    1. Clippers(because there is no fucking way the Rockets "tell me when to go" offense wins the WC or WCF!!)
    2. Rockets (Fuck. I HATE them)
    3. Warriors (because I cannot put them behind the Lakers, and I think they will surprise a lot of people)
    4. Lakers (if they stay healthy and nothing weird happens, which always seems to happen with them lately)
    5. Blazers (Dame will carry them again to a respectable record)
    6. Utah (could threaten to take #3 or 4 spot if their season goes well)
    7. Spurs (because the Spurs... but I could see them regressing a bit this year, maybe even not making the playoffs)
    8. Nuggs (They were the young darlings last year, going to need a repeat or better to get a better seed than 7-8 this year)
    followed closely by New Orleans (who may even beat out Denver and SA), and then maybe Dallas at #10.
     
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  2. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Yeah, I place the Warriors at 5-6. That defense is just... oh boy.

    The Lakers will be 3rd and I think Cousins will make a huge impact. The Blazers will be 4th. Utah, Denver, San Antonio & Golden State will muddle around 5-8. I like Utah a lot. But I need to see them play to believe that they have it, because they have the potential to be up there next to the Rockets and Lakers.
     
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  3. Money

    Money NBA All-Star

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    I definitely seeded the Dubs higher than I think they will be. Very homer of me. But yeah, just cannot willingly put them behind the Fakers even if its more likely the case.
     
  4. Money

    Money NBA All-Star

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    Vegas is putting the Nuggs Jazz and Trailblazers all higher than I did, and puts the Warriors at the 7th seed. hmmm, interesting.

    I still think one of those three teams is not going to be as good as they are on paper right now, either through not playing well, trade, or injury.
    Nuggs are the most likely in my book to regress
     
  5. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    Don't sleep on the Nuggets. I think they're contenders, and should be among the best teams in the west.

    It'd be something like this, imho.

    West:

    1/2.- Lakers/Clippers. Not really sure who to put first. They're that close. I think the Lakers did a good job surrounding Lebron and AD with good, savvy vets. Probably will save something in their tank for the playoffs, tho, so I think the Clippers can go first. But it's hard to tell.
    3.- Nuggets. If Michael Porter Jr. ever plays and contributes, and with the addition of Jerami Grant, they're even better than next year. If Jamal Murray can take that next step, I think they can take on anybody in the west. I still have them below both LA teams, but I think they're really, really good and with room to improve.
    4.- Jazz. Love every single move they've done this season. Conley is a big improvement (if healthy), Bogdanovic is a great signing (much better than Mirotic, who was plan A), Ed Davis and Jeff Green are underrated role players that will help their second unit a lot. I think it was a great offseason for them.
    5.- Rockets. I can't stand them, and I think they will go out in the first or second round, because adding Westbrook to a team that lives and dies by the three is never a good idea, imo. But they have a lot of talent. I can't put them lower than this.
    6.- Blazers. They have a chance to go deep in the playoffs if Nurkic comes back soon (although he won't be back before January/February) and gets in shape for the playoffs. If that happens and Zach Collins keeps improving, they're going to be really dangerous in the playoffs. If healthy, I like them more than the Rockets.
    7.- Warriors. Sorry, but I'm extremely worried about our defense. I think we'll be fine inside, but without Klay, our perimeter defense looks to be one of the worse of the league. And we're going to have to change our offense and adapt to a guy like DLo who's used to run the pick and roll more often than anybody else in the NBA. I think we're good enough to make the playoffs even without Klay, but it won't be an easy season.
    8.- Spurs. A Pops' led team with a backcourt with Murray and White is going to be a defensive force. They're talented enough to make the playoffs with the last seed. I think the Pelicans, Kings and TWolves have a chance, but it's going to be a long race, and I think coaching will be the deciding cause here. Hence the Spurs pick.


    East:

    1.- Milwaukee. I'm not gonna say they got better because they lost Brogdon, but they did recover nicely adding Robin Lopez, Korver, Wes Matthews, Frank Mason III... all guys that will play a role and that's what they need. Giannis says he can keep improving. It's a bit scary if that happens. And Kawhi is in the west now...
    2.- Sixers. I'm not sure they've improved. Josh Richardson is a nice player, but he's not Jimmy Butler. Al Horford is great, but they lack outside shooting and Horford won't provide that. Their lineup is huge, but the shooting is suspect, and that's a vital skill in today's NBA. They're too good to fall more, tho.
    3.- Celtics. They've replaced Kyrie with Kemba, and that's an improvement (if not in terms of pure talent, the locker room will benefit hugely from the change), but they haven't replaced Horford adequately (Kanter is a very good offensive player, but his flaws are exactly everything Horford does well). Tatum has to get back on track after a disappointing season if they want to be contenders.
    4.- Pacers. If Oladipo comes back strong, they're in the top 4 of the East. Brogdon is a very good addition, they stole TJ Warren from Phoenix, added a good scorer like Jeremy Lamb... they have to figure out what's going on inside, because Sabonis is up for an extension and so far he hasn't been a good fit near Turner, and they've drafted Bitadze, another center... Still, a very talented roster that should be among the best in the East.
    5.- Toronto. Current champions will replace Kawhi with Norman Powell in their lineup. It's only natural they're not going to be the team to beat. Good enough team to make the playoffs, but with a bad matchup, they'll be out in the first round. They need OG Anunoby to explode if they want to have a chance in the East.
    6.- Brooklyn Nets. No KD means Kyrie is going to be the one leading the team to the playoffs. DeAndre Jordan hasn't played well in three years. Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince are good role players, and Dinwiddie, Kurucs and, more than anybody else, LeVert are going to be the ones helping Kyrie this first year. Is it enough to make the playoffs? Yes. But don't expect them to go much higher than this. Maybe 5th if Toronto doesn't have a good season.
    7.- Miami. Jimmy Butler is a great addition and a guy that fits the Heat culture like a glove. Him and Winslow are going to give the Heat a top defensive presence in the wings. If Herro (a rookie) and Adebayo develop nicely, they can even surpass the Raptors. But I'd say making the playoffs is their ceiling without new additions.
    8.- Detroit. Detroit and Orlando fought last year for the last seeds and both made the playoffs. But with Miami improving, I don't see both making them. And I hate the Magic offseason, because they refuse to realize that you need wings and a point guard to play basketball. They have a ton of inside guys and have neglected their backcourt and wings year after year after year. Detroit brings back the same team that made the playoffs last year with Rose, Tony Snell and Markieff Morris improving their second unit. It should be enough to secure the last spot in the East.
     
  6. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    The Warriors suck, according to most analysts. So I take back my prediction. They’re gonna miss the playoffs. Green’s a fraud who can’t shoot. Curry has 0 Finals MVPs. Russell is a fake all-star. Awful roster.

    Nah, but in reality, I’m anxious to see this team play out. They are being buried as underdogs. I look forward to seeing that edge they once had prior to their 2015 title return.
     
  7. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    They should have enough to get to the playoffs, and with a healthy Klay (and let's hope he gets back in time to get in shape for the playoffs), I think they have a chance to beat anybody. A chance, not a certainty like in years past.

    How Russell fits is going to be the most interesting development of the season for the Dubs. He's gonna play to stay in the team. If he can't fit, or if we have to change so much our style that we're not as effective anymore, he knows he's gonna be traded next year (if not sooner), with no control of where to. So everything's on the line for him.

    The biggest question mark, imho, is the SF spot. Are we moving a healthy Klay there? If so, how are we going to defend with both Curry and Russell as our undersized backcourt? Is McKinnie the starter? I'm just not confident at all about our SF position.

    Can't wait for the season to start.
     
  8. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Kerr is going to coach his tail off this year. He has a different roster, so it’ll be interesting to see how he evolves this year, too.

    I’m curious to see the Kings, too. I love Fox. Buddy Hield plays tough. Giles/Bagley has potential. I still think they’re a year away from doing damage, but there is a good blend of vets and youth. Reminds me a bit of the 2012-13 Warriors and ironically enough, HB was the starting 3 then and now.
     
  9. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    I love Fox and Hield is good, too, but everything rests on Bagley's development. He's gotta be their third wheel. If they rely on Harrison Barnes to be their third guy, they're in trouble. Giles is intriguing, a lot of talent, but he's only shown flashes. He's got to be more consistent (and, actually, if he had more touches in the offense it'd be alright). As for the role players, Barnes is good as a starter/role player, Bjeliça and Bogdanovic have talent and Ferrell, Ariza, Joseph and Dedmon are solid.

    But they've been overpaying for a while, and that's going to be a problem in the not so distant future.

    They're paying Harrison Barnes $85 million. $36 million to Cory Joseph. $40 million to Dedmon. Buddy Hield and Bogdanovic (actually, I like Bogdanovic more than Barnes, if only because their performance is not going to be that different, but Bogdanovic will be a much cheaper option) are free agents after next season. Fox and Giles have two more seasons on their deals. They are going to be in trouble to keep everybody signed and happy. I think they f*cked up signing Cory Joseph and Dedmon to those deals, I think. They help now, but in a couple of years you're going to wish you had that money available instead of tied into two backups that are past their prime.
     
  10. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Dedmon made no sense, especially with the departure of WCS. I could understand, say, Al Horford (which was a rumor).

    Vlade has had an interesting tenure as GM, to say the least.
     
  11. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Revisiting this now that the season is officially over. Nice guesses. TMC almost had the east correct with 7/8, at least with who would be there. And the Warriors and Spurs failed our expectations.

    First round playoff predictions?

    LAL vs POR - Lakers in 7. Tough to believe LeBron/AD dropping 4 games to the Trail Blazers. Trent and Melo need to outplay Kuzma and KCP. If Portland had Ariza and/or Aminu/Harkless, I’d possibly give them the edge.

    HOU vs OKC - Rockets in 6. The big one will be what happens when Harden sits. This Thunder squad will be a tough out.

    DEN vs UTA - Nuggets in 6. Utah’s missing Bogdanovic (injured) and they just lost Conley for probably a couple games (birth of child). Mitchell’s good, but Denver is just so versatile. And Jokic is so damn good all over the floor.

    LAC vs DAL - Clippers in 5. Honestly, I see the Clippers overwhelming Luka. That is if they Clippers are focused. They play like 2018-19 Warriors at times. KP is good, but he’s not enough to take off pressure off Doncic.

    MIL vs ORL - Bucks in 5. This should be quick work. But Milwaukee has not played very inspiring basketball as of late so I could see them dropping a game.

    MIA vs IND - Heat in 6. Playoff Jimmy is just so dang good. This Heat team is built to make you pull your hair out if you’re rooting against them with their balance.

    BOS vs PHI - Celtics in 5. No Simmons. Embiid not 100%. This could be quick work, too. Brown/Tatum/Walker is a lethal trio.

    TOR vs BKL - Raptors in 4. It’s Caris LeVert vs the Raptors defense. Yikes.
     
  12. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    Yeah, it wasn't that bad, was it? :)

    Ok, let's go with the current seeding:

    LAL vs POR.- I think it's the most interesting series in the whole first round. Maybe til the conference finals. I don't think the Blazers are well equipped to deal with Davis and Lebron, but then again, who is? But Dame has been amazing in the bubble and the Blazers now have some depth and toughness with Nurkic back. Melo is also having a nice season. Ariza would have been invaluable for Portland, but he's not available. I think it can go to 6/7 games easily. Must watch. Lakers in 7.

    HOU vs OKC.- As XBay says, it won't be easy. And CP3 probably has a message for Houston. Closer than it seems on paper. But I think Houston has, ultimately, the better roster. At least this season. Houston in 6.

    DEN vs UTA.- I don't think Utah is ready for what's coming to them. Denver has improved their game during the bubble, Michael Porter Jr. is now contributing and Utah is missing two important players, even if Conley comes back later. It might be too late. Denver in 5.

    LAC vs DAL.- Another big series, if only because Doncic will play like the MVP he's soon going to be and create constant trouble for LAC. Still, I don't think Dallas has enough to steal more than a couple of games, and maybe that's one too many. Still, Doncic vs LAC is a must-watch. LAC in 5.

    MIL vs ORL.- Bucks in 4. Milwaukee has to start playing like the top team in the east, because they have been quite disappointing in the bubble.

    MIA vs IND.- Best series in the east doesn't mean that much, right? Miami in 6. It's going to a showcase of competitive basketball on both sides, but Miami has better players and coaching, imho.

    BOS vs PHI.- Celtics in 5. The Sixers lack Simmons, Embiid is not 100%, the roster never gelled like they expected to, Brown is now thinking about starting Thybulle for the playoffs... not the best shape to enter a series vs a talented, well-coached team like Boston.

    TOR vs BKL.- Raptors in 5. The Nets have been scrappy and fun to watch. May steal one here, but there's not enough talent in that roster for more. Not this year.
     
  13. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Welp, maybe the Bucks will figure it out, but boy did they still look out of it in Game 1.
     
  14. Money

    Money NBA All-Star

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    Lakers vs Trailblazers Blazers in 7. Hate Lebron hate the Lakers, even if logical, I cannot vote for them...

    Rockets vs Thunder Rockets in 6

    Nuggets vs Jazz Nuggets in 4

    Clippers vs Mavericks Clippers in 5

    Bucks vs Magic Buck in 6 they've got something to work out

    Heat vs Pacers Heat in 6

    Celtics vs Sixers Celtics in 4

    Raptors vs Nets Raptors in 5
     
  15. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    Yeah, and Orlando didn't do anything special. They were able to score from outside and collapsed over Giannis on defense. Middleton had a bad game. They'll recover, but the Bucks don't look exactly crisp at the moment.

    Same goes for the Lakers. Portland won the first one looking in shape. The Lakers shot poorly from outside, and that puts everything on Lebron and Davis, and that's gonna kill them if it happens often.

    I also think both teams would have won their games if they had been playing in their own courts. These playoffs are going to be weird.
     
  16. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Agreed. The NBA did as good as they could recreating the environment, but nothing can match the energy of 18k+ fans.

    Still, the Lakers’ drop off after LeBron & AD is pretty ugly. Kuzma needs to be the 3rd scorer but he’s not always reliable. And then their 3pt shooters... do not shoot it well.

    And Philly... man, what a mistake letting Jimmy Butler walk. They should’ve prioritized him over Tobias Harris. Butler is tenacious. A true 16-game player like Draymond likes to call em. Even if Milwaukee figures it out, Miami is going to be a problem. They have some young, inexperienced guys, but they also have some DOGS on that team.
     
  17. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    Miami is really good. I'm rooting for them in these playoffs (I'm gonna root for Miami as long as they don't play the Dubs, so it's not a big surprise). And Jimmy can, at times, behave like an asshole, but he's a tremendous competitor, one of the best.

    I thought Miami was the third/fourth team in the east. I saw Milwaukee and Boston as the top seeds, in terms of talent. Not sure about Toronto, they play really well, but they lost Kawhi, so it's not the same team. And Miami is in the mix. Now, watching how poorly the Bucks are performing, I'm not sure anymore that Miami can't win the East.

    Also, I really enjoy watching Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro play.

    Philly traded Covington and Saric for him. And they got Josh Richardson from Miami. Seems to me they ended with the worst part of the deal (and I like Richarson, but he's not as good as Jimmy, not even remotely, and he's worse than the Covington/Saric pair). They f*cked up not offering him the max to stay, and now they've got Horford, who is a great player but a bad fit there, Toby (another good player, worse than Jimmy), Ben Simmons (who still can't shoot and is questionable fit alongside Embiid) and Joel. I think Philly is going to make moves and half the roster might be different for next year.
     
  18. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    Hated the Horford move. Boston could’ve been the favorites if he re-signed, but how do you say no to all that money? Still, like you said, Philly’s got a lot of undoing to do. They need to figure out who’s strengths they want to construct the roster around more, Embiid or Simmons? If I was Elton Brand, based on the way the league has evolved, my preference would be Simmons.
     
  19. TMC

    TMC Administrator Staff Member

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    I think they will be going with Embiid. The Sixers fans LOVE Embiid, and it's true that, when healthy, he's their best player (although Simmons has a higher ceiling, if he ever learns to shoot!).

    They're going to try to make it work with those two for at least one more season, imho, but if they have to choose, I think they'll be more open to trade Simmons than Embiid.

    I might be totally wrong, but that's the vibe I get right now.
     
  20. xbay

    xbay NBA 1st Team All Pro Staff Member

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    I think Simmons might hold higher trade value, especially since he's 2 years younger. And the fact that 2-way wings are so highly coveted and important in this league. That's why I think the Sixers should go with Ben, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Joel. Simmons has all the tools to be a mega star. Defensively, he covers so much space. And offensively, he has all the tools minus the shooting.
     

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